BANGALORE - A month of acrimonious campaigning is over and voters have cast their ballots in assembly elections in the western Indian state of Gujarat. Bookies and exit polls indicate that Narendra Modi, Gujarat's controversial chief minister, is likely to come back for another term at the helm.
This is distressing news for Gujarat's religious minorities and for secular-democrats across India. Modi's ideology, actions and public style are widely seen as a threat not only to Indian
secularism - he thrives on stoking hatred against India's Muslims - but also to its democracy.
The outcome of the election is being keenly watched not just by Indians but by foreign governments as well.
Modi's fans see him as a messiah, someone who "has taught Muslims a lesson". He is also credited with having brought vibrancy to Gujarat's economy. His critics describe him as a "barbaric butcher" of Muslims in Gujarat, an "Indian Hitler" and the architect of the 2002 anti-Muslim pogrom in Gujarat.
In early 2002, Gujarat witnessed a frenzy of communal violence, when mobs targeted members of the Muslim community in the state, after Hindu pilgrims were killed in an alleged attack on a train. Modi turned a blind eye to the killing, raping and looting of Muslims. Among those who carried out the massacres were members of Modi's party, the right wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and others of the Sangh Parivar, a family of Hindu right wing organizations. Around 2,000 people, mostly Muslims, were killed and tens of thousands were displaced in the violence.
Modi swept elections held later that year after a campaign in which he played on fears of Muslim terrorists. He is likely to win again now, albeit with a smaller margin.
Sections in the United States can take some credit for his victory.
About 40% of all Indians in the US are of Gujarati origin; many of them are in the hotel/motel business there. Modi enjoys immense support among them. Hundreds of members of the US wing of the Overseas Friends of the BJP (OFBJP) came down to Gujarat for the election campaign. As American citizens many of them might not have been able to vote for Modi but they made up for that with generous donations and soliciting support for Modi among the electorate.
Members of organizations like the OFBJP-USA and the Support Gujarat Progress Group were active right through the election campaign calling and e-mailing family and friends back home to vote for Modi. A website supportgujarat.org that was launched in November provides video clips, data and documents on why Narendra Modi should be elected again. These overseas groups have paid for full-page advertisements in leading publications in Gujarat highlighting Modi's achievements in the economic field. Much of the pro-Modi campaign on the Internet - the YouTube clips and ringtone downloads of Modi's speeches - was not done from Gujarat or other parts of India but from the US.
A US-based lobbying firm Apco Worldwide - it counts former Nigerian dictator Sani Abacha and Kazakhstan's President-for-life Nursultan Nazarbayev among its clients - which has helped with sprucing up Modi's image. Hired in August this year its brief ostensibly was to sell Brand Modi to the world, to promote Gujarat as an investment destination. It was Apco that was behind Modi's networking at the World Economic Forum Conference at Dalian in China's northeast Liaoning province in September this year.
Apco was reportedly chosen by Modi over other public relations firms because of the high-profile personalities it boasts among its team, including Richard Allen, former chief foreign policy advisor for Ronald Reagan, and former US Democratic congressman Donald Bonker.
If Modi wins, he can be expected to get Apco to accelerate its lobbying in Washington and step up its efforts to improve his image abroad.
Modi was denied a visa by the US in March 2005. He was to address the Asian-American Hotel Owners Association in Florida and a public meeting in New York, and was also scheduled to meet business leaders. But a sustained campaign by the Coalition against Genocide, an umbrella organization of secular Indian-American groups opposed to Modi's brand of politics, which included lobbying of US senators and State Department officials resulted in the US government not only denying the Gujarat chief minister a diplomatic visa but also revoking his existing 10-year tourist/business visa.
The US Embassy in New Delhi said then that the decision to refuse Modi a visa was taken under a section of the US Immigration and Nationality Act, which forbids anyone who is "responsible for, or directly carried out, at any time, particularly severe violations of religious freedom" from entering the US.
Modi's role in the Gujarat riots of 2002 and pressure from secular Indian-American groups had resulted in the US blocking Modi's entry into the US. The European Union too has made it clear that he is not welcome.
Modi did get to visit the United Kingdom in 2003. But in 2005, he was forced to cancel his three-day trip to the UK. Though he was not denied a visa, the British Foreign Office apparently conveyed to New Delhi its "strong concerns" about Modi - diplomatic speak for saying he was not welcome. Modi was told that the Foreign Office would have no contact with him. Neither would it provide him official security.
While the US and other Western countries have denied him a visa, they have not blocked their companies from doing business in Gujarat.
But Modi, his access to the US and much of Europe blocked, is aggressively wooing China, Japan, South Korea and Singapore for investment. He has visited these countries with huge business delegations in tow. And this is bound to have been noted in Washington and European capitals.
Gujarat has emerged India's number one investment destination. According to a recent study brought out by the Reserve Bank of India, the country's central bank, the state attracted a quarter of the total investments that were made in all of India in 2006-07. The US and Europe would not like to be overtaken by China and Japan in the race to be a part of Gujarat's boom story.
Over the past month, officials and analysts from North American and European diplomatic missions in Delhi were reportedly camping in Gujarat to get a sense of the Modi's chances of returning as chief minister. A Delhi-datelined report in the International Herald Tribune cites officials as saying that even if he were to win, "it would be difficult to see how Washington could change its stance towards him".
However, it does seem that the US government has not actually been averse to dealing with him. In the months following the riots, the US government was critical of the Modi government. But its diplomats and officials were regularly visiting Gujarat and interacting with Modi and others in his administration. The decision to deny him a visa came not from conviction but under pressure from a very public campaign by secular Indian-American activists.
In the years since, US officials have renewed contacts with the Modi government. In November 2006, US Consul-General Michael S Owen met Modi in Gandhinagar, the state capital. Investment opportunities in Gujarat were reportedly discussed at the meeting.
Modi loyalists insist that it is a matter of time before the US gives him a visa. "Vibrant Gujarat" under Modi will be hard for the US to resist, they point out. His likely return as chief minister is expected to provide a shot in the arm to their efforts at improving his image worldwide.
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