Narendra Modi, future PM

Too many journalists have proved guilty of projecting wishful thinking as analysis. Despite widespread media criticism, Narendra Modi won a landslide victory in Gujarat. Many journalists are now trying to explain lamely why they were wrong, and some hope he will be tamed or diminished in his second term.

I see things differently. I see Narendra Modi as a future Prime Minister of India, possibly even the next one. The prospect does not fill me with joy, but analysis is not about joyfulness. Just look around for young politicians who can move the masses, who can be more than regional leaders and make a national impact. I see no new faces, in or outside the BJP, to match Modi.Atal Behari Vajpayee is in poor health, and some believe LK Advani will soon take over from him, maybe in the next general elections in 2004. But Vajpayee might not step down. He might outlive Advani: there is little difference in their ages. Nobody can say who will pass away first.

By contrast, at 52 Narendra Modi is has many decades ahead of him. After his Gujarat victory he is obviously the star vote-getter of the party, leaving far behind older aspirants like Murali Manohar Joshi. Bhairon Singh Shekhawat may have some rival claims, but is an aged gentleman that has been kicked upstairs already. Besides, Shekhawat constantly needed help from others to form coalition governments. By contrast Modi won with a crushing two-thirds majority in Gujarat. You may hate him, but you cannot deny his vote-getting power.

Expect Modi to be a leading campaigner for the BJP in coming elections in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, and expect the BJP to win. Drought and fiscal bankruptcy caused by the Pay Commission award have made Congress governments in these two states very vulnerable anyway. Expect this weakness to be exacerbated by communalism, spearheaded by Modi.

The BJP no longer has to incite communal riots to inflame passions. Jehadi elements are doing it anyway, and handing over public sentiment on a platter to the BJP. Witnesse temple attacks in Jammu and Akshadharm. Expect more such attacks, and not on temples alone. Expect each attack to strengthen the BJP and weaken its rivals.A paradigm shift has taken place in Indian elections. The old aphorism, that all politics is local, now rings hollow.