Law of diminishing returns for Narendra Modi

NEW DELHI: As Gujarat heads for an Assembly election, chief minister Narendra Modi's clout appears to have begun to diminish in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

An internal assessment of the party shows that there has been about 7 per cent swing away from the party among members of the influential Patel community.

Therefore, party sources say, former chief minister Keshubhai Patel has been made chairman of both the campaign committee and the election planning and management committee for the state to send a signal to the Patels that the BJP intends to give Keshubhai as important a role as Modi, if not greater.

Sources claim that there is now an awareness in New Delhi that it was Modi's "whisper campaign '' — during his stint as party general secretary in Delhi — that led to Patel's replacement as chief minister. Another indication of Modi's diminishing importance was demonstrated when he was not permitted to have his way in the matter of former state minister Haren Pandya, whom he wanted expelled for criticising him.

The compromise was: Pandya was dropped from the government.

Though Deputy Prime Minister LK Advani's unstinted support of Modi remains unchanged, the Prime Minister's unhappiness with the Gujarat chief minister is now gaining more adherents in the party. A senior party functionary says, this is "not on ideological grounds but because of his (Modi's) abrasive personality". For, Modi has not just tangled with Patel and Pandya, but also the party's organisational general secretary, Sanjay Joshi.

Even HRD Minister M M Joshi described Modi's swipe at Chief Election Commissioner JM Lyndgoh's faith as "improper" at an RSS function.

Also, RSS Spokesperson MG Vaidya in a signed article in Panchjanya, an RSS mouthpiece, hailed Congress state chief SS Vaghela — a former RSS man — as a "Hindutva hero" and said Pandya's ouster had upset the state unit.

The Prime Minister himself echoed Joshi's comments about Modi.

Party sources now say that Vajpayee, who had failed to get Modi to step down at the Goa national executive in April, is now trying to garner support for his line on Gujarat. Indeed, party sources belonging to the anti-Modi group in Gujarat say that the possibility of President's rule cannot be ruled out, in case the Supreme Court backs the Election Commission's line on the subject.

"This will provide a natural end to Modi's rule in the state. He will certainly remain a top campaigner for the party because he is a 'necessary evil'.

But he may just be one of the top campaigners, instead of being the Hindu hriday samrat," said a Central minister.