Gujarat A la Modi

Gujarat

A la Modi

THE teetotal state of Gujarat, in the west of India, has once again revealed a taste for a strong political brew. On December 23rd a vote count showed that the state's chief minister, Narendra Modi, romped home to another big victory in elections to the state assembly held earlier that month. Mr Modi, a member of the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), was already the most controversial figure in Indian politics. He may now become one of the most influential.

Once the size of Mr Modi's win was confirmed—the BJP carried 117 out of 182 seats—it became hard to remember why anyone thought he might lose. But the Congress party had raised its hopes, if not its game, in this campaign. Sonia Gandhi, the party's leader, crossed swords with him. The leaders of two powerful Gujarati castes, the Patels and the Kolis, had fallen out with him (at least until he won). And some of the party's foot-soldiers also resented a leader who owes more to a personality cult than to them. As Mr Modi's supporters donned smiling “Modi” masks, some of the rank-and-file grumbled that no one was bigger than the party.

Mr Modi had won the previous election, in 2002, in special circumstances, just ten months after 58 rail passengers, many of them Hindu activists, died in a blaze blamed on a Muslim mob. The anti-Muslim sentiment unleashed by that incident—up to 2,000 people were killed in the pogrom that followed—helped sweep Mr Modi to victory.

Since then, the state's Muslims have “learned to live with downcast eyes”, as a report by one local lobby group puts it. But the rest of the state has its head up and its chest out. Always prosperous and enterprising, Gujarat is now booming. Its voters clearly credit some of this prosperity to Mr Modi's administration, which is notably less venal and ineffectual than those Indians in most other states have to endure.

India's nightmare is that the millions left behind by its new prosperity might lash out, turning to Maoist violence. But equally sinister is the prospect of its aspirant classes casting their lot with a business-friendly strongman who promises to make the proverbial trains run on time and to keep disaffected minorities in check.

The BJP is short of “tall” leaders. L.K. Advani, its candidate for prime minister, is 80. The party's president, Rajnath Singh, has made little impression: no one is wearing masks made in his likeness. Mr Modi, on the other hand, has attracted intelligent and ambitious strategists, such as Arun Jaitley, who would not waste their talents on him if they thought him no more than a provincial demagogue.

But his campaign, so successful within the state, may have done some damage to his larger ambitions. His frequent appeals to Gujarati chauvinism jar outside the state, and he struggled to maintain decorum when provoked. After Mrs Gandhi's reference to “merchants of death” was taken as an allusion to his alleged connivance in the 2002 pogrom, his defiant response appeared to justify a notorious 2005 murder by policemen in his state. The exchange earned both leaders a reprimand from India's Election Commission. This populism may win votes. But the BJP must also remain acceptable to a coalition of parties if it is once again to head a national government. Mr Advani has had to soften his image to lead his party. If Mr Modi is ever to succeed him, he too will need to try on a different mask